Tuesday, June 19, 2012

The View From Down Here - Where We're Going, We Don't Need Roads.

I haven't really been posting much lately, because, truth be told, there hasn't been much worth writing about.  But with the MLB amateur draft recently finishing up, and the Cubs' signing of Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler, I decided now would be as good a time as any.  I talked about this briefly with Solly on "Wait 'Til Next Year", but I can expand on it a little more here.

As Cub fans, we are always looking towards the future.  But it's hard not to be legitimately excited after Soler's signing, even more than just the usual Cub fan optimism.  

In the past, the old regime would try to plug holes by buying aging veterans who were past their prime, or call up prospects before they were ready (see Pie, Felix). Previous ownership would never commit to a full on rebuild.  But with this year's Cubs eating a good portion of Carlos Zambrano's contract, letting Aramis Ramirez walk, and reportedly being willing to eat a good chunk of Alfanso Soriano's albatross contract, Tom Ricketts has made it obvious that this is not your father's Cub front office.

In the next three years, this organization will have added elite level talent in Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Soler, and Albert Almora.  They also still have, the top holdover from the Jim Hendry era - Brett Jackson.  They will likely have the top pick in a very impressive draft next year and likely one to two additional B to A level specs from trades this season.  Not to mention, they will have shed every terrible contract on the books.  Plus, they will have additional revenue streams from the Wrigley remodel, All-Star Game cash (rumor is they will be getting the 2016 All-Star Game to celebrate 100 years at Wrigley Field), and they will be gearing up for a Cubs network.  It's not hard to believe that by 2015, the Cubs could have an outstanding lineup for years, led by the following core group:

SS - Starlin Castro: It's hard to believe that Castro is still only 22 years old and not even in his prime.  Last season, he became the youngest player ever to lead the National League in hits with 207. He has hit .300 or better in both of his full major league seasons and is currently hitting .302, but believe it or not, he's still a work in progress at the plate.  He could stand to work a bit more on his plate discipline, but he could also easily develop more power as he gets older.  Add to the fact that his defense has been steadily improving each season, and you can see why Castro, already a perennial All-Star, is one of the pieces the Cubs will be building around.

1B - Anthony Rizzo: Originally drafted by the Cubs' triumvirate of Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and Jason McLeod when they were all running the show in Boston, Rizzo has been acquired by Hoyer and McLeod both in San Diego (for Adrien Gonzalez) and now in Chicago (for Andrew Cashner).  Considering the level of talent that has been given up for him both times, it's obvious the Cubs' brass thinks the world of him.

Rizzo is obviously the minor leaguer closest to being called up to the big club.  In fact, it will most likely happen sometime in the next couple weeks. (If Rizzo is called up before Saturday - June 23 - he will become a free agent in 2017 instead of 2018.  If you don't think that plays into the Cubs' decision about when to promote him, you're sorely mistaken.)  The 24-year old has been tearing up Triple-A pitching all season, leading all minor leaguers with 23 home runs heading into play Monday. He is batting .364 with 59 RBIs and a 1.170 OPS.  (Not to mention he's a lefty.)  All this goes along with Gold Glove caliber defense.  Seeing those numbers, it's easy to become giddy at the thought of Rizzo manning 1B for years to come.

LF - Brett Jackson:  Brett Jackson is the next in line to be called up after Rizzo.  If I were to venture a guess, I would say it will probably be in September.  Currently a centerfielder that has been compared to Bernie Williams (although he is likely to be moved to LF once Almora and/or Soler make the big league club), Jackson has the tools to put up good all around numbers and be on the verge of making the All-Star game every year, but I wouldn't expect him to be a perennial participant.  Jackson's strikeout rate is a little high for the current brass' liking, so there is even a possibility that he could be moved in the off-season if they think they can improve the future of the organization.

2B - Junior Lake: Signed out of the Dominican Republic 3 months after Starlin Castro, Lake is currently a shortstop for the Class AA Tennessee Smokies.  Rumor has it that the Cubs view last year's top draft pick, Javier Baez, as a third baseman, Lake's other natural position, so it is likely that Lake will begin to get some work at 2B before too long.  While still fairly raw, he has made great strides in every level of minor league ball after he has been promoted, and currently has a line of .301/.357/.818 with 4 HR, 7 doubles, and 2 triples in 143 at bats.  His ability to get on base and to hit to all fields should have Cub fans salivating for his eventual development.
 
3B - Javier Baez: Another shortstop, this one currently playing for the Class A Peoria Chiefs, Baez has the skill set and power to be moved to the hot corner before too long.  As a high school senior at Arlington Country Day School in Jacksonville, FL, Baez hit .771 (64-for-83) with 22 homers, 20 doubles and six triples.  With a glaring lack of impact bats in the farm system, it's easy to see why the Cubs made him their first round selection last year.  If the Cubs truly do view Baez as a third baseman, look for current third base prospect, Josh Vitters, to be traded in the next couple years.


CF - Albert Almora: Considered one of the most well rounded prospects in this year's amateur draft, the Cubs took Almora with the sixth pick overall.  Because of his all around athleticism, many scouts have compared him to Carlos Beltran.  The Cubs would be absolutely thrilled if he lives up to that potential.


RF - Jorge Soler: Along with current Oakland A's outfielder, Yoenis Cespedes, Soler was considered a top flight prospect when he defected from Cuba earlier this year.  In fact, there are several scouts that would have put him as a top 5 pick in this year's amateur draft.  While he is a centerfielder right now, his age and height make it possible that he could easily be moved to a corner outfield spot by the time he is done growing.  If his power swing develops as expected (and he has already shown flashes of video game type power at the plate), he could hit like one, too.  With a possible left to right of Jackson / Almora / Soler, the Cubs could have one of the most feared outfields in a few years.

Now, most likely, not all of these prospects will pan out.  Not to mention, the players they get back in a Ryan Dempster and/or Matt Garza trade this season could jump in front of some of  these guys (although, those will most likely be trades for more pitching).  But, even if only half of them produce at the expected level, the Cubs are going to make Robert Zemeckis look like a genius.

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